新冠肺炎疫情全球预测

Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic

西班牙

Spain

西班牙(Spain)

西班牙总人口约4673万人,自2020年6月1日起参加抗议活动人数累计可达1万人左右。假设西班牙于8月初完全解封,二次暴发将在8月底达到峰值,每日新增确诊病例约为1万例,叠加抗议活动影响后每日新增确诊病例将增长至约1.4万例。随着管控措施的再次实施,二次暴发将于今年年底逐步减弱平息,累计确诊病例总数达到80万例左右。


Spain has a population of about 46.73 million and the number of protesters has reached about 10,000 since June 1, 2020. Assuming that Spain completely lifts lockdown in early August, the second outbreak would peak in the end of August, with daily new confirmed cases of about 10,000. After adding influence factor of protest to prediction model, the number of daily new confirmed cases will reach about 14,000. Due to re-implementation of control measures, the second outbreak will gradually subside by the end of 2020, and the number of cumulative confirmed cases will reach about 800,000.