新冠肺炎疫情全球预测

Global Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic

韦斯切斯特

Westchester

韦斯切斯特 (Westchester)

韦斯切斯特总人口约97万人,自2020年5月29日起参加抗议活动人数累计可达3万人左右。假设韦斯切斯特于6月底完全解封,二次暴发将在8月中旬达到峰值,每日新增确诊病例约为3500例,叠加抗议活动影响后每日新增确诊病例将增长至约5500例。随着管控措施的再次实施,二次暴发将于9月逐步减弱平息,累计确诊病例总数达到15万例左右。


Westchester has a population of 967506 and the number of protesters has reached about 30,000 since May 29, 2020. Assuming that Westchester completely lifts lockdown in the end of June, the second outbreak would peak in middle August, with daily new confirmed cases of about 3,500. After adding influence factor of protest to prediction model, the number of daily new confirmed cases will reach about 5,500. Due to re-implementation of control measures, the second outbreak will gradually subside by September 2020, but the number of cumulative confirmed cases will reach about 150,000.