COVID-19 is still spreading on a large scale, with many countries showing an upward trend compared to last month. As of December 31, 2021, more than 280 million people have been infected with COVID-19 and 5.4 million have died worldwide. According to the prediction results of the Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP), in January 2022, a COVID-19 resurgence would occur in many places around the world, with more than 51 million new cases estimated.
The world’s top 10 countries with the most projected new confirmed cases in January have been presented in Figure 1. It is shown that the US would still remain the first. Most of the top 10 countries would be in Europe, indicating many European countries would still suffer in January and become the epicenter of the whole world. Europe would remain the continent hardest hit by the outbreak in January.
Fig. 1 The world’s top 10 countries with the most projected new confirmed cases in January
In the Americas, the number of daily new cases of the US would increase first and then decline, but with a soaring average of daily new cases more than 0.53 million because of the Omicron variant, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in January to exceed 16 million. The number of daily new cases of Argentina would also increase first and then decline, with an average of daily new cases more than 49,000, pushing the number of cumulative confirmed cases in January to exceed 1.5 million.
In Europe, the daily new cases in Spain in January would show a downtrend, with an average exceeding 0.22 million people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in January exceeding 6.9 million, increasing larger than last month. France would see a trend of increasing first and then declining of the daily new cases in January, with an average of around 0.13 million people, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in January to more than 4 million. Italy would also see a trend of increasing first and then declining of daily new cases, with its average exceeding 0.1 million, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in January to more than 3.3 million. The daily new cases in the UK in January would be on a downtrend, with an average exceeding 97,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in January exceeding 3 million. Germany would have a downtrend of daily new cases, with an average exceeding 40,000, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in January to more than 1.45 million. The daily new cases in Greece in January would increase first and then decline, with an average exceeding 28,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in January exceeding 0.89 million.
In Asia, the daily new cases in Turkey in January would show a downtrend, with an average exceeding 40,000 people, recording the number of cumulative confirmed cases in January exceeding 1.26 million.
In Oceania, Australia would experience a rapid spread of the virus due to the Omicron variant. The daily new cases in Australia would increase first and then decline, with an average exceeding 40,000, pushing the cumulative number of confirmed cases in January to more than 1.42 million.
In addition, Switzerland, Canada, Sweden, etc. are expected to see more than 10,000 daily new confirmed cases on average in January. The epidemic situation is far from optimistic. Meanwhile, the emergence of Omicron, a new variant of SARS-CoV-2, has made the situation more serious, we need to be vigilant.
What is described above indicates the epidemic trend of countries with a larger monthly increase in the number of daily new cases and a huge number of cumulative confirmed cases. For the rest of the countries and regions worldwide, please refer to the monthly and seasonal prediction sections of the GPCP (http://covid-19.lzu.edu.cn/).
Team of Pandemic Prediction, Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, Lanzhou University
January 1, 2022
